Dual Target Governance and Sustainable Low-Carbon Development: Reassessing the Growth- Environment Nexus in Chinese Cities

Abstract

Existing research indicates that excessively high economic growth targets are detrimental to environmental protection. This paper further examines the moderating effect of introducing environmental objectives on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission intensity, exploring the theoretical mechanism that shifts the relationship between economic growth and environmental protection from substitution to complementarity. Empirical analysis utilizes panel data from 278 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2019. Two variables—textual data from local government work reports and the exogenous shock of the new Environmental Protection Law’s enactment—serve as proxies for “environmental target introduction.” Find- ings reveal: (1) Higher economic growth targets inhibit carbon reduction, while introducing environmental targets mitigates this effect; (2) Government development targets primarily in- fluence carbon intensity through three channels: environmental regulation, green innovation, and industrial structure; (3) The impact of economic growth and environmental targets on car- bon intensity exhibits spatial heterogeneity. In economically developed cities, resource-based cities, provincial capitals, cities with independent planning status, and sub-provincial cities, the dual targets show no significant effect on carbon intensity. This study provides theoretical support for further refining government target management systems.

Keywords: economic growth targets; environmental targets; carbon intensity; Environmental Protection Law (EPL).