From Survival to Sustainability: A Longitudinal Model for Measuring Enterprise Resilience in Ukraine During Wartime with a Focus on International Marketing

Abstract

The full-scale war in Ukraine has significantly transformed the international economic activities of enterprises, requiring new approaches to assessing resilience under crisis conditions. This study aims to develop a standardized longitudinal model for measuring enterprise resilience in a wartime economy, with a focus on marketing adaptation and international marketing.

The research is based on international statistical data (Trade Map) and applies a longitudinal approach to analyze changes in foreign economic activity. An Integrated Enterprise Resilience Index (IERI) is proposed, combining indicators of export performance, value-added structure, and export diversification.

The empirical analysis of Ukraine’s exports in 2020–2024 reveals substantial structural shifts caused by wartime shocks, logistical disruptions, and global economic changes. Industrial sectors, particularly metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and chemicals, experienced the most significant decline, while the agri-food sector demonstrated relatively higher resilience and maintained a leading role in export composition. The IERI dynamics indicate a sharp decline during the initial crisis phase followed by gradual stabilization.

Based on the findings, a Resilience-Driven Export Transformation Model is developed, explaining the transition from crisis survival to long-term resilience. The results highlight the importance of marketing adaptation, market diversification, alternative logistics, and international marketing in strengthening enterprise resilience. The proposed index provides a practical tool for evaluating export performance and supporting strategic decision-making under conditions of economic instability.

Keywords: enterprise resilience; resiliency; longitudinal analysis; Integrated Enterprise Resilience Index; marketing adaptation; marketing research; international marketing; export; market diversification;