Economic Implications of the Effects of the Ukrainian War

Abstract

Without any doubt, beyond humanitarian consequences, Russia's war in Ukraine will have economic implications, some of which we can already see, others will be more obvious soon. The most important effect is on energy and food prices. Energy security remains the "Achilles' heel" of the European economy, given its heavy dependence on Russian energy imports. In this article, we will analyse, among other implications, what is probable to happen in the commodity trading markets and who are the winners and losers from this difficult situation. We will also have a look at capital flows, what are the perspectives of emerging markets from the area. Another aspect taken into consideration is consumer and business confidence, because, despite significant savings accumulated during the pandemic, there will be an important change from the consumer side, which will nevertheless affect the GDP growth. Given the fact that this is an ongoing event, some of the conclusions may be different at the time of presentation.